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LB Takeaway | PDD downgraded to equal-weight, Netflix and Nvidia's price target cut

2025-09-06 12:19

$370 to HK $365

If calculated at today's closing price of HK $237.6, this price means that there is still room for 54% to rise!

Why: The continued recovery of the logistics industry as a whole from April to June makes the bank optimistic about the revenue/profit outlook of JD.com Group and expects the group's offline and online market share to grow. The second-quarter earnings are expected to meet market expectations amid cost optimization initiatives and narrowing losses in new businesses.

The bank updated the group's second quarter performance forecast, expecting total revenue to grow by 3% year over year, at the high end of the guidance; total merchandise volume is expected to grow by 2% year over year, while industry forecasts are 2-5% year over year; adjusted operating margin is expected to be 1.1%, compared with 1% in the same period last year.

Daiwa: Reaffirming JD.com's "Buy" rating with a target price of HK $310

If calculated at today's closing price, this price means that there is still 30% room for improvement!

Why: The bank estimates that JD.com's revenue growth in the second quarter increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and it is estimated that sales from suppliers and third parties will each increase by 1%, mainly benefiting from 3C products (ie computers, communications and electricity bill electronics) and home appliances, offsetting weaker demand for clothing, and estimates that the net margin was flat in the previous quarter, but it is estimated that the net profit could increase by 1% year-on-year to 4.7 billion yuan.

The bank also said that in the face of logistics problems, there is still a 10% increase in the sales amount of JD.com on 618. Due to the increase in the market share of JD.com, it is expected that revenue will regain double-digit growth in the second half of the year.

Goldman Sachs: Maintain BEKE-W "Buy" rating, target price of HK $60

If calculated at today's closing price of HK $39.75, this price means that there is still 51% room for improvement!

Why: The bank expects that the company's second-quarter revenue will be about RMB 11.3 billion, down 53% year over year and 10 % quarter-on-quarter, 11% higher than the median guidance of management and 6% higher than market expectations; the expected net loss under non-GAAP will be 1.85 billion yuan, which is narrower than the market expectation of 2 billion yuan, mainly due to the one-time severance payment related to credit loss provision and optimization of employees.

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